F1 2016: Nico Rosberg vs Lewis Hamilton

Thursday, 1st December 2016

As we look back on the movements in the title odds during the last three months of the 2016 Formula One season, the effects of one particular race are clear in the chart: Malaysia.

Hamilton's retirement after an engine failure at Sepang International Circuit lead to a dramatic 'crossover' event in the betting-implied title chances, with Rosberg replacing former favourite Hamilton as the betting market's frontrunner. This change of fortune was one that Hamilton was not able to reverse, despite winning four of the last five races of the season.

Each of those subsequent races appear as just a blip on the chart - three days of volatility in the odds as bettors looked for any signs that Lewis was going to make significant inroads into Nico's points lead.

Ultimately although Rosberg's title chances fell from a peak of 85% to 70% after the Mexican Grand Prix, his continued solid performance had him back at around 80% going into the tense final weekend at Abu Dhabi, where after a knife-edge final race he was able to take the title by just five points.

The full historical betting odds are also now available to purchase. The 0 point data set covers the period 1970-01-01 to 1970-01-01 in 5-minute intervals.
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