About

We independently monitor political betting odds offered on betting exchanges and by bookmakers, visualising changes in real time and building the web's largest archive of historical political betting odds.

Betting odds, particularly those offered in betting exchanges, are interesting because they represent at any given moment a real-money-backed crowd consensus on the likelihood of a given outcome.

Betting markets are certainly not perfect predictors of events. There are always events that surprise markets, such as the US Presidential Election 2016 or the UK EU referendum 2016.

There is however some evidence to suggest that betting markets are on average good predictors of political events.

Above all, betting odds are always interesting, and are worth collecting and archiving as a record of consensus expectations of any given moment.

Technical information

Every five minutes, we fetch and store prices offered on various political events on a range betting exchanges and by a range of traditional bookmakers. We blend the odds using a proprietary algorithm to create our unique cross-market odds snapshot.

In liquid markets, we weight betting exchange odds very heavily, since these reprice much faster in response to events. In illiquid markets, we use traditional bookmaker odds (adjusted for overround) to form a stable 'core' of our blended odds.